Good morning! A few European countries seem to be approaching the downside of the coronavirus wave - Austria and Denmark, for example, are beginning to open schools again.
(China is also opening some cities, but it is hard to know if this is being done for scientific or symbolic purposes.)
Lockdown continues in many parts of the US, UK and France - Paris has now prohibited outdoor exercise.
Let's continue the conversation.
Comments
Main topic of discussion is the lack of designated Deputy PM, a relatively recent innovation under a previous administration.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52208156
Even a `designated someone' might have to be out of the fray, thanks to the virus.
We haven't experienced anything like this since 1666, well before the evolution of the Cabinet. Then, the king was in Salisbury and Parliament in Oxford. The London death rate was 7,000 a week.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_II_of_England#Great_Plague_and_Great_Fire
The WHO estimates around 650,000 people globally die every year from the influenza virus. I doubt worldwide we will even be close to this number of deaths and the economic repercussions of this will be BRUTAL.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)
This is so politically motivated by the media, particularly in the US.
In the website I have posted a few times, from yesterday to today they adjusted Florida’s peak mortality to be 149 down from 249–yesterday. I am now taking a screenshot daily of the Florida data.
247 new cases reported in a day. But that's just the official numbers, the actual numbers might/must be higher.
Aljazeera reports more than 800 died in the UK in the past 24 hours. (No link, this was on their "Community" section only visible if you follow their channel on YouTube.)
I'm wearing my trained biologist's hat now.
Did you read my post yesterday about how the UK statistics office has pointed out the flaws in listing deaths by day of reporting? It has to be done by actual date of death to get a picture that doesn’t mislead. Do you know which date has been used in the figures you quote?
In UK, this analysis shows that OF ALL COVID-RELATED DEATHS, 80% ARE IN HOSPITAL and 20% AT HOME.
This virus and the disease it causes are both new to medical science.
We have had years of experience with influenza - each year,a vaccine is produced according to the best guess of what the winter will bring. We lacked any sort of prior knowledge with Covid 19.
Corona viruses were discovered quite recently. That's not to say they did or didn't exist prior to their discovery about 3 decades ago - we just hadn't come across them before.
We were not in a position to compare and contrast the effects of Covid 19 with those of seasonal 'flu when it started.
This is an extremely infectious virus, few particles are required to infect someone and a single carrier can infect far more people, far more quickly, than the flu viruses.
There still is no reliable test for either the antigens or antibodies. People can infect others even when they seem healthy themselves.
Seasonal 'flu has its worst effects on the elderly - most of whom, in the West at least, are not economically active.
That, surely, is a major difference.
Now, in the UK we are eligible for vaccination once we are 60, or if we have underlying conditions. This is partly for our own good but partly so the hospitals aren't overwhelmed by sick, old people, often with secondary pneumonia.
We could only guess what effect this new virus would have. The over-70s in the UK are barely allowed out of the house, not even to food shops or pharmacy. This is on the assumption that if we contracted Covid 19 we'd block hospital beds for longer than young people would. We've been told to stay at home for 12 weeks
Also, the virus is far more virulent than expected and it doesn't discriminate between young and old; it hits the very people who are working to feed and care for the population, the essential workers. Nine London bus drivers, for example, have died so far.
There is only so much that can be done in anticipation of such an epidemic. We can't make vaccines for diseases we don't know about. Stored PPE has a shelf life. If a government had stored it years ago, on the off chance, they would have been criticised at the time - for wasting money.
Compare this with AIDS. Perhaps you remember the panic in the 1980s? A new disease, a new kind of virus, one that lingers in the body so intercourse with an infected person was considered tantamount to sex with every other single person they'd been intimate with? We were terrified.
Both AIDS and Covid 19 are alike insofar as we had no previous experience. The same goes for the other nasty virus diseases, transmissible from animals, Ebola and Green Vervet Disease/Marburg virus. We have to research and learn as we go along.
I really can’t comment about how politicised the situation is in the US. Here, apart from Corbyn having to stick his oar in early on and the Guardian & Independent grinding their inevitable socialist axes (much further left than the US version), there has been relatively little scoring of political points.
We cannot assume that the economic damage will be such that we should have carried on as `normal', even if `normal' were possible.
People could be dying in the streets, as they did in 1919 in Holland.
They are not the proper mask to protect from Covid. They are surgical masks, which protect from droplet illnesses like the flu.
Covid has been found lingering in the air in vents in hospitals. That is AIRBORNE, not droplet.
I have a 6 month old baby. I am considering leaving my job for the first time in my life.
For perspective I was in kindergarten in 1990, so no I do not remember the panic over AIDS. Also, in the US, pretty much everyone is able to get the flu vaccine, and in some populations it is mandated (health care workers) and even with that there’s still almost 3/4 of a million deaths every year. We did not have realistic information because China’s government has been lying since the beginning, hence why they need to face some serious global repercussions, but I also think the media has driven this into such a frenzy that the results will be far worse from a global repression than from the disease itself.
I am infuriated to read the latest email from my job, where we will get 1 mask each a week.
They are not the proper mask to protect from Covid. They are surgical masks, which protect from droplet illnesses like the flu.
Covid has been found lingering in the air in vents in hospitals. That is AIRBORNE, not droplet.
I have a 6 month old baby. I am considering leaving my job for the first time in my life.
CookieShark, I am so sorry. Please, please, fashion masks for yourself in order to protect yourself as best as you can if you continue to work. University of Florida Health believes that their masks are 99.9% effective based on tests by University of Florida. Of course, they aren't certified, but you have to roll with the best that you have. (That's why I want that material!) I feel so sorry about the agonizing decisions that you have to make every time you leave that baby.
Do you see any slowing in new cases, or any cases getting better and being discharged? Hopefully you are discharging more than are being admitted. That is what we're not getting a count of, those recovered. There must be, because there are places here taking blood and platelets from those recovered to send to hospitals for treating the most ill.
I do agree that the lack of PPE for healthcare workers has been disastrous. If China had been honest we would have had months to ramp up our production and would probably have had enough, or at least a significant amount more than we had. In the US the media called our President a Xenophobe for closing the border with China at the end of January and then has persistently criticized him for then not doing ‘enough.’ Both other challengers for the Presidency have stated that they would not have closed the border (I believe that) and then have tried to walk back their statements. It is very messy here with our media trying to collapse our economy and increase the hype with this virus, clearly motivated by their hate for our current leadership. It’s getting old. Particularly when so many of us just want straight answers.
If you feel leaving your job is best for you and your family, absolutely no one would fault you. No one is going to take care of you and your family like you will. You will find employment again when this is all over. Any person in HR or otherwise would understand how you came to your decision.
Former DIL picked up 5 dozen eggs from me a few days ago (I put them in a box at the gate, she picked them up and took them home). She and her children died the eggs, and are going to neighborhood people's houses, hiding eggs outside (while dressed in PPE and gloves), then inviting the homeowners outside for an Easter egg hunt after they leave. (She said that everybody is soooo depressed about parents and children not being able to see grandparents and vice versa that she wanted to lift neighborhood spirits.)
That is thoughtful of your former DIL. The holidays are a very hard time for people to be separated from their families. Do you have chickens? It sounds as if you do if you were able to come up with 5 dozen eggs. Down here we have been limited to 2 dozen eggs at a time when we are grocery shopping and last time I was just happy that they even had any.
You had commented earlier on your dilemma between essentials and dark chocolate sea salt caramels, and I think you made the right decision. I wonder if stores will sell less Easter candy this year? I’m optimistic that maybe next week there will be lots of Easter candy on sale when we go to the grocery. I wanted to go two weeks between shopping trips, but with things like milk, find it impossible, plus we have only a small fridge and freezer in our apartment and no extra fridge or deep freezer like so many do in the Midwest and other places.
I’m not sure what to say on Hispanic vs black communities being hit less or more by this virus. Neither Mr Vice nor I are Hispanic (I pass off easier than his pale, blond self). I’ve largely depended on you to provide the statistics of our state and you’ve done a nice job.
To cross reference our other blog, H&M could "do something that mattered" and donate money for PPE like Bethenny from Real Housewives has been doing. She has made a tremendous difference.
3M had their medical manufacturing factories in China. China also produces the materials for the masks. China has since nationalized the factories. In other words, they stole the factories and the technology for making the masks. China is good at theft, very bad at innovation. I believe now that 3M is working at capacity to provide their industrial masks to healthcare workers but building new factories to make the material for the masks and building new equipment is going to take time. The reason for the plants being in China to begin with is that it is so difficult to even build new factories due to environmental regulations, worker protection, energy costs, etc.
There are many, many small manufacturer people here that want to produce masks at the N95 (or above) level. The problem is that they have to be certified by government agencies and, to be certified, they have to have laboratories test them exhaustively (and this costs a LOT and takes a long time). They have to have government inspectors come in to certify the manufacturing process, I believe. But the government inspectors can't travel. Now, they might, if the government bureaucracies move in a lightning-like fashion, be certified in six months, but they are needed yesterday. The President may have to step in and slash some rules temporarily but can you imagine how the press will call for his blood if ONE healthcare worker is infected due to the new masks? They're calling for his blood NOW.
I’m a registered independent too. I’m also an APRN, so I’m going to stick with my judgement of the seriousness of this. I did wear PPE when flying in March when this started to get bad and I do a thorough job of hand washing, but I still think the economic repercussions of this will be far more long lasting than the physical repercussions.
That is thoughtful of your former DIL. The holidays are a very hard time for people to be separated from their families. Do you have chickens? It sounds as if you do if you were able to come up with 5 dozen eggs. Down here we have been limited to 2 dozen eggs at a time when we are grocery shopping and last time I was just happy that they even had any.
Yes, I keep a "few" hens. (I get about 3 dozen eggs per day from my girls.) I keep them in movable pens so that they are protected from foxes, coyotes, hawks, owls and alligators, g and move them to fresh grass daily so that they can graze, eat bugs and be chickens. If I get behind in egg washing, like I have for the last couple days, well, now I have 72 eggs waiting to be washed and refrigerated along with the 36 or so I'll pick up today. I have to pickle more eggs to clear the refrigerator(s)! Everybody I know says "NO!" when I ask if they need any more eggs!
When it turns extremely hot and humid, the egg factory will slow waaaaaay down.
Daughter picks up several dozen eggs at a time to distribute to people where she works. If this goes on much longer, I'll contact the food banks and see if they want to take some but their rules are pretty strict and the answer would probably be "no".
The town closed down our local farmer's market where people sold their extra eggs and produce. I still lost money on eggs considering the price of feed, but it did help cover it a little bit.
MiamiVice, I really do not know why it is less severe here unless it has to do with the beaches and sunshine. Most of our population is, as you know, within about 40 miles of the coast. The severe clusters in Georgia are mostly inland and they have more deaths than we do.
It could very well be that the machines are only one step in the process and there are other, more important components that they are not able to source.
Covid-19 death toll in SA now at 18
Covid-19 has claimed five more people in SA, as overall cases rise to 1 845, the Department of Health has said.
Two of the latest victims are from the Free State, another two from Gauteng and one from KwaZulu-Natal. Their ages range from 52-years-old to 77-years-old.
The total number of tests conducted in the country so far is 63 776.
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/coronavirus-all-the-latest-news-about-covid-19-in-south-africa-and-the-world-20200312
While the pandemic was still at manageable levels, each case was recorded and made public (province, age, gender and how the person was infected) up until about the third week in March.
https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/details-of-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-20200324
“My brother who is in touch with lots of epidemiologists and who has made a specialism of pandemics is saying the peak is a while away yet but I think politicians are frightened of telling us the truth . . .”
Her brother is a very eminent medic whose specialism is Global Medicine.
If he says it’s serious, it is.
What the heck is going on?
HIV is not airborne. To contract HIV from another person, you have to exchange bodily fluids through physical contact. (HIV also does not remain active outside of a host for very long at all so it does not contaminate surfaces as COVID-19 does.)
COVD-19 IS airborne. A person sneezes or coughs and the virus is expelled into the air from where it is carried by air movement and then settles on surfaces where it remains active for days, depending on the surface.
It all depends on how you define airborne ...
airborne (medical def.): airborne diseases are illnesses spread by tiny pathogens in the air. These can be bacteria, fungi, or viruses, but they are all transmitted through airborne contact. In most cases, an airborne disease is contracted when someone breathes in infected air.
However, WHO seems to be playing with semantics and confusing people by doing this. COVID-19 does get onto surfaces through the air and through movement of air (e.g. a sneeze can send the virus, through the air, as far as the length of a bus and pretty far through coughing). Hospitals have done tests and found that virus particles linger in the air in a room where a COVID-19 person had been treated and died.
Now that the symptoms are well known, and they know what meds work, the next round shouldn't be so bad. 30 percent of colds are a corona virus, it'd be amazing if they could figure out a vaccine for colds while they were researching C19.
I'm still keeping mama locked down, and I have full sympathy and concern for healthcare workers, but I remain optimistic.
You are on top form today. Thanks for you posts today.
What I have noticed in South Africa: for the first about 3-4 weeks, we got detailed daily information (no names, but each person testing positive we knew the age, gender, location in terms of province, and if it was a local transmission, and, if imported, from where). Other than names and addresses (where in the province was not revealed in the early stages but later the district would be given) we had detailed information about the virus. I found this detailed daily information very comforting.
Then we went into lockdown, and we still get daily updates but they are not as detailed and mainly focus on, cumulatively: number tested, number positive, number recovered, number of deaths (for the latter, because the numbers are still low, we still get province, age and gender). Some provinces, like the Western Cape, will, on top of the information from the National Department of Health, give more details about those infected, recovered, hospitalised, in ICU, and deaths in the province, with district within the province given.
The bigger the pandemic gets, the less information we have and the less accurate it gets. South Africa was vigorously tracking down and testing contacts, and quarantining them for up to 3 weeks just to be safe. It is getting too big to do that now and we are still at single figures for deaths per day (and only jumped from 1 or less today) and hospitalisations are still manageable. South Africa is actually a country that designated COVID-19 a notifiable disease before the first case (so, by law, each case must be verified and reported to our equivalent of the CDC in the USA). At the very early stage, one person who travelled to another province after testing positive was arrested and charged with attempted murder, and we were threatened with prosecution if we showed symptoms or were in contact with someone who was diagnosed with the disease and did not report it. As the pandemic grows in numbers, that rigour goes out the window.
So, even in countries who are not trying to hide anything or deliberately mislead anyone, the information is increasingly inaccurate and confusing as the pandemic grows, and the controls the government has in its toolkit become less and less effective.
It must be very frustrating for epidemiologists and other scientists who are trying to produce models and give good scientific advice to governments on what to do next.
I side with you. Wish I had been taking a screenshot of the predictions from the beginning to see how much they’ve decreased from the initial predictions. I realize there isn’t a way we could have truly known how this would shake out, but do think we could have taken proper precautions and returned to work, especially if we had enough warning to ramp up PPE protection for Healthcare workers and the elderly.
@Sandie, I’m not aware that anyone stated the virus is not airborne, it is. Oddly enough one of my coworkers had shown me an official looking document early on (wish I remember the source) where it said that a surgical mask was protective from COVID considering it was a big particle, now we know that is not true. There has been so much conflicting information given out, but I blame the Chinese (government officials, never the people) for giving us all deceptive information.
I wish governments weren’t so freaking political and that they actually cared about doing what is best for people. I realize that’s not a reality for many countries, but it makes me angry. These are people’s lives.
This is from our National Department of Health website:
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/04/01/is-covid-19-an-airborne-virus/
Is COVID-19 an airborne virus?
The WHO has disputed claims that COVID-19 is airborne
What we know is:
– COVID-19 is a droplet infection.
– Droplets can spread to those who are in close proximity with an infected person.
– Droplets can remain on some surfaces for up to 12 hours.
– It is therefore important to practice social distancing and good hygiene to prevent becoming infected.
This document from WHO explains why they say categorically that there have been no cases of airborne transmission:
https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations
It is all about definitions and it is misleading.
Last time we went to the store all the canned black beans were gone. Found this link that says they have 10x the antioxidant level of oranges.
https://www.weightwatchers.com/us/blog/food/are-canned-black-beans-healthy
Hmmmmmm....
Although Cubans do not eat healthy, IMO. When they bring in Cuban food to work it always includes fried foods.
I'm taking starts off my elderberry, cchokecherry and honeyberries; highly recommend them to anyone who might be able to grow a few. I love elderberry anything, and my grandmother made us all drink a tonic she made from them in early spring and late Fall. They grow wild around here ( and half the US, I imagine) and I have got a little grove of them, but it can't hurt to have a few more. And apparently honeyberries and chokecherries are good for you, too. I want to start putting up a lot more of various juices to have on hand.
And speaking of blueberries, I (used to) have some young planted blueberries, too, with lots of mulch around them. SwampMan got a wild hair and decided to mow my "brush patches" as he calls it, because I do chop and drop for mulch. Yes, he mowed my little blueberry plants. He also knocked over a 5-year-old oak sapling that I'd grown from an acorn from property up north that had been owned by a deceased relative as a remembrance of the area (an oak tree not from around here). I built a fence around it so it would be protected from the livestock and from my husband. He 'accidentally' got the tractor caught in the fence and yanked the tree down. Then he got upset when I was yelling at him and told me that I needed to put surveyor's tape around anything that I didn't want him to accidentally mow. "I BUILT A FREAKIN' FENCE AROUND A 10' TALL TREE! WHAT THE HELL GOOD WOULD A PIECE OF TAPE DO AROUND A TINY BLUEBERRY BUSH?" He also took out two small pecan trees that I think will not live. (All in all, about $1,000 worth of damage.) He had to stand my oak tree and stake it and he is in deep manure if it doesn't survive because he didn't even try to fix it or even tell me about it. Then when he got the tractor out of the orchard, he didn't put the gate back up that he accidentally knocked down. Livestock came in and were munching the survivors.
Told him NEVER to do me another favor and if I wanted something mowed, I'd do it my own damnself.
I swear that if he isn't let loose soon to do something other than trying to "help" me, he may not live long enough for the virus to kill him.
Sigh. It isn't his fault. He's an engineer type and if it isn't machinery, well, who cares.
Love it! I feel like this whole crisis is either going to result in a population boom or a whole lot of divorces!! If we lived closer I would meet you for coffee, but I think you said you’re more toward Orlando if I remember correctly.
https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/florida-fruits-vegetables-rot-business-coroanvirus/77-1a6cbf8d-2438-4bbf-9ece-21fd6117809d
Well, I'll be. I'm so glad that NPR was able to correct me! It is economic disparity, language barriers keeping them from getting 'what they deserved', fear of immigration status because of anti-illegal rhetoric plus they don't have jobs where they can work remotely from home on computers.
Nah. I still think it is using filthy mass transit and living under crowded and unhygienic conditions which result in higher viral loads. I wonder how many may have TB as an underlying condition.
Dang, we're having severe thunderstorms. I expect to lose power soon. Y'all have a good night!
1 Université de Strasbourg, Chimie Moléculaire du Solide, Institut Le Bel, Strasbourg.
2 Ceremade, Université Paris Dauphine
3 Association Espoir Métabolique
4 Assistance Publique des Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.
Abstract
We report the case of a cohort of 2500 French patients treated among others with methylene blue for cancer care. During the COVID-19 epidemics none of them developed influenza-like illness. Albeit this lack of infection might be by chance alone, it is possible that methylene blue might have a preventive effect for COVID-19 infection. This is in line with the antiviral activity of Chloroquine, a Methylene blue derivative.
Both Chloroquine and Methylene blue have strong antiviral and anti- inflammatory properties probably linked to the change in intracellular pH and redox state.
Keywords: COVID-19, cancer, methylene blue, metabolic treatment
Introduction
Europe has been recently been hit by an epidemic of COVID-19. We report a cohort of patients treated for cancer in France. This cohort is managed by an association (Espoir Metabolique) and is a cancer support group. There are 2500 patients all at high risk for sepsis because of concomitant chemotherapy. One of us has interviewed (by telephone and by e mail) these patients to register the cases of COVID-19. As of March 27th, 2020, there were no cases of registered COVID-19 or of flu–like syndroms. These patients were treated by a combination of standard therapy and α-lipoic acid (800 mg twice a day), hydroxycitrate (500 mg three times a day) and methylene blue (75 mg three times a day) as well as a low carb diet.
I had no idea it had pharmacological value, having used it only as a stain in microscopy. Even then, we were warned about it being `poisonous'!
Thank you for posting this paper,Swamp Woman, it's a revelation. You have my sympathy over the mowing catastrophe - can you even trust Swamp Man with the secateurs?
Apparently there's been a good response to the appeal for help with harvesting fruit & veg. Brits get a lot of stick for `not wanting' to do this sort of work but I reckon the `system' of claiming benefit usually works against anyone doing casual work like this - massive forms & built-in delays if one switches in and out of work.
30-40 years ago, kids in Hampshire used to bunk off school to earn cash-in hand by `rogueing', that is hand-weeding wheat fields to remove wild oats (these, being grasses, resisted selective weedkiller). By 1990, the work was taken by gangmasters who recruited from eastern Europe, locals couldn't get a look-in even when they weren't benefit claimants. The whole system had changed.
There's a big problem now for some dairy farmers, those whose milk usually goes to the catering trade, rather than supermarkets or home deliveries, as cafés etc are shut. Their milk is not being collected and is being wasted. During the Foot and Mouth epidemic (almost 20 yrs ago, unbelievable) one local farmer switched very successfully to cheese production as her milk was uncollected but not everyone is in a position to do that.
I was able to find a milkman who delivers local milk to the doorstep.
Boris is improving, that's a big relief.
There were lots of caveats for people that want to try it on their own for things like Alzheimer disease and cognitive improvement for people that had had brain damage as a result of strokes, accidents, etc. Those had to do with buying bulk methylene blue from unknown sources because that will probably kill you because lots of it has arsenic and other metals in it. There are no approved sources for oral use or any use for people at home. (Imagine my surprise, I didn't know that there was such a thing as people dosing themselves with methylene blue.) I would personally rather have it administered in a hospital under controlled conditions. If a person is taking serotonin reuptake inhibitors, it could slap kill them because it also increases serotonin. It was used as an antidepressant and an antimalarial in the past before safer treatments were found.
That being said, there are medical uses for it per Wikipedia: As a medication, it is mainly used to treat methemoglobinemia.[1][3] Specifically, it is used to treat methemoglobin levels that are greater than 30% or in which there are symptoms despite oxygen therapy.[3] It has previously been used for cyanide poisoning and urinary tract infections, but this use is no longer recommended.[1] It is typically given by injection into a vein.[1].
Also per Wikipedia: Methylene blue was first prepared in 1876, by Heinrich Caro.[5] It is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.[6] In the United States, a 50 mg vial costs about US$191.40.[7] In the United Kingdom, a 50 mg vial costs the NHS about £39.38.
I'm sorry to quote a poor source such as Wikipedia but it is probably adequate to know that this is something that should not be done at home.